Adoption has a workload of its own — working trial 7.2

Job and preserved intention

Combine a four-team adoption heatmap with an explicit office-work stock-flow account. Backlog, arrivals, learning, support, task effort and rework remain inspectable. Baseline and intervention are calculated independently. All starting coefficients are synthetic assumptions; a separate authored observation ledger cannot be overwritten by a model run.

Equations and boundaries

Requested joins = adoption rate×(people−adopters). Decay = decay rate×adopters. Actual joins are capped by hours available for learning and support after support for continuing adopters. Next adopters = previous+joins−decay. Fractional adopter-equivalents describe aggregate rates, not partly trained individuals.

Funded support is capped by available hours after learning; required but unfunded support is reported separately. Working hours = available−learning−funded support. Existing adopter decay is still governed only by the declared decay rate; unsupported continuing adoption is a visible assumption/shortfall. Effort per standard-work hour = (1−adopted share×task saving) + baseline rework fraction×(1−adopted share×rework reduction). Completed work = min(backlog+arrivals, working hours/effort per standard hour). Next backlog = previous+arrivals−completed.

Task savings = completed×adopted share×task saving. Rework savings = completed×baseline rework×adopted share×rework reduction. Net modelled useful hours = these two disjoint savings−learning−support. The components relate to the same completed work and are not added again as throughput gains. Unused capacity remains unused. The unchanged baseline has no adoption, overhead or savings; initial trial adopters’ earlier training is a sunk cost outside the horizon. This is a newly authored model, not a calibrated system-dynamics model.

Walkthrough and reference

Use Compare scenarios to increase learning hours or set both savings assumptions to zero. Inspect team shows the stock identities each week. Record separate observation stores an explicitly authored figure and method; changing assumptions never rewrites it.

Independent one-week check: four people×10 hours, zero starting adopters, 25% adoption, no decay/overhead gives one adopter and share 0.25. Task saving 0.2 and rework reduction 0.5 on baseline rework 0.2 give effort 0.95+0.175=1.125 hours per standard hour. Completion is 40/1.125=35.555… standard hours; backlog 100 falls to 64.444… . Task savings are completion×0.05; rework savings completion×0.025. With only 10 available hours and 1,000 learning hours/new adopter, at most 0.01 new adopter-equivalents enter that week.

Checks and full ambition

node --test apps/efficiency-uptake/app.test.mjs runs six tests for the independent reference, adopter/backlog/hour balances, resource-limited adoption, no double-counted/assumption-labelled benefit safe invalid edits/imports and zero-availability reconciliation.

A weekly workload/adoption ledger is the simpler comparator. A real uplift tracker requires agreed baselines, repeated observation and cost allocation. No modelled hour is reported as measured benefit, train-service capacity or safety performance; the model cannot justify reducing required assurance.